Let’s face it. It’s hard to deal with Russia. It always has been. From the bolsheviks, to the cold war, to Yeltsin, and now President Vladimir Putin. We follow different paths, and we have different interests. In the post-cold war era, this has never been as obvious as it is at this current time.
Since George W. Bush commented early in his presidency that he looked into Putin’s eyes and saw his soul, their friendliness and kind words have quickly expired. Now the two countries have become engaged in rhetorical shouting matches and trans-national insult exchanges.
There is no doubt that, after years of economic humiliation following the end of the cold war, Russia has become the bear it used to be. Some have even ventured that they are returning to their old, aggressive ways as a geopolitical force. Its bulging gas exports have created an economic boom, the likes of which the Russian people have never seen. One could say, however, that with this new found wealth and power, the Russian government, and Mr. Putin in particular, have developped somewhat of a big head. Most of Eastern, and much of Western, Europe depends on Russia for their oil and natural gas imports, and Russia is trying to take full advantage of it. Recent diplomatic scuffles with the Ukraine and Estonia (see last post) are proof that the Kremlin is not shy about being hawkish in order to regain their power.
Unsurprisingly, the United States is none too thrilled with Russia’s power grab. Certainly, Putin’s suppression of social and political criticism has not won many Western friends, including those of the Bush administration. Putin’s KGB style lockdown of critical news associations and boistrous political opponents is scarily similar to the tactics used under the old Soviet regime. The international pressures to be more democratic, lead by the United States, seem to be having little, if any, effect; Putin’s approval rating is over 70%, and compared to Bush’s paltry 28% approval rating, it is no wonder Putin has the political leverage to scoff at the American president’s comments.
Tensions have also been strained because of the planned missle defense system the United States has planned for Eastern Europe that Russia says is a threat to its interests and security. The United States has said that the missile system is for the defense of Eastern and Central Europe – including Russia – and Secretary of Defense Condoleezza Rice has said that there is no way Russia can veto it. The U.S. has also been vocal in its disaccord with Russia over what it sees as the proliferation and distrabution of weapons of mass destruction – most notably to foe Iran.
It is true that Russia has a cordial and business like relationship with the Iranian regime, and is in the forefront of countries providing materials to supply Iran’s nuclear program. The U.S. is, of course, adament that a nuclear Iran is not an option and has become frustrated that its attempts at U.N. sanctioning have not recieved the support of Russia and China.
What the United States must do is use this cordial Russian/Iranian relationship to its advantage. No amount of pressure or criticism from the U.S. will stop the Iranians from what they see as their “given right”, therefore the U.S. should get the Russians to do it for them. Russia has already offered to process Iran’s uranium in Russian – to which the Iranians refused. The U.S. must proove to Russia that it is in their best interest to either deny Iran the ability to process uranium, or to have it done in Russia. This would give Russia more control in the conflict (which Putin is not likely to turn down) and keep the materials in Russia to be handled by Russians. Furthermore, the U.S. would be assured that Iran would be using the nuclear technology for energy purposes only, and not weaponry.
What is important to remember is that if this idea comes from the United States, or seems to be fabricated by them when the Iranians receive it, it is a no go. It is for this purpose that the U.S. must show the Russians how much their interest is at stake, and then let Putin and co. do the bidding. They should, also, not be allowed to take no for an answer.
We are reaching the point where the United States must realize that its diplomatic leverage is down, and must humbly accept the fact that Russia can, and must, be a key component to its diplomatic showdown with Iran. The Russians have a newfound sense of purpose and are hungry for power, why not use this to our advantage?




May 16, 2007 at 6:29 pm
Interesting take. While I see where you are coming from there are a few things you need to understand about what is transpiring in this area in order to understand that Russia is in bed with Iran and that is likely not to change any time soon.
http://lthomas.wordpress.com/tag/poland/
http://lthomas.wordpress.com/2007/05/14/sarkozys-foreign-policy-challenges/
http://lthomas.wordpress.com/2007/04/22/russia-declares-herself-a-muslim-nation/
May 16, 2007 at 6:41 pm
Now if you read my positions that I outlined above I can wholeheartedly agree with you that Russia could become a player in the Middle East in opposition to Iran if two things come true.
Sunni Arabs get his attention and the Major players in the Middle East allow Putin to have power beyond what would be available to him thru Iran.
If Iran can be minimalized by the Sunni to the advantage of Russias ever growing Muslim population in the region then it will play to Putins hand. If not then he will be content to Play ball with Iran and the Shia.
May 16, 2007 at 7:07 pm
I see your point, and I see that in order for Russia to play hard ball with Iran, it may need to proove to Iran that it is in its best interest as well.
While I think it might be a stretch to call Russia a Muslim population right now, its growing population will certainly give it more legitimacy as a Muslim ally. To be prudent diplomatically, the U.S. MUST use this to their advantage. Their relationship with the Kremlin is strained, but it is not dead. The recent efforts to calm down the rhetoric can only help. If the U.S. wants to get serious about Iran, I honestly think that Russia needs to be a part of that plan.
Kent
May 16, 2007 at 8:36 pm
The effect of relations with eastern Europe by the United States was by design. The United States has actively worked for relations with all the former Satellite countries of the USSR so as to Isolate Russia.
There have never really been any intentions by the USA to normalize any lasting relations with Russia beyond perfunctory curtesy. This is evident in the coalition of the willing in which all the former satellite countries of Eastern Europe gladly jumped on board with the USA. They are extremely happy and anxious to gain the USA’s favor so that the USA can then peddle her influence with the EU to gain them membership in the EU and break the long standing ties with an antagonistic Russia.
While I would prefer to see better relations with Russia, I believe that it is just not in the cards and even the EU is finding that with Putins ascent to power that Russia is turning her attentions East instead of west towards Europe.
May 16, 2007 at 9:08 pm
“However, the center of gravity in international politics, which is certain to shift from Europe to Asia, will produce at least four candidate great powers that could challenge Washington over time: Russia, Japan, China, and India. From this list, however, only China-for various reasons explored in the lecture-is likely, not certain, to materialise as a peer competitor to the United States in the future.” – http://www.carnegieendowment.org/publications/index.cfm?fa=view&id=19158&prog=zgp&proj=zsa,zusr
Lest we forget another sponsor of Iran [China] and a competitor[India].
May 16, 2007 at 9:52 pm
Absolutely Bill.
The powers that are to come are all coming from the East of Russia and that is another major influence in shifting her attentions east.
However another major power could be the EU if she were to ever meet her expectations and live up to her Hype. Europe needs to overcome some major hurdles but its still not too late for the EU to matter on the world stage.
May 16, 2007 at 11:27 pm
BUT…while you both make some outstanding points, who will help us with Iran? There have been numerous nations to take a stand against the Iranians getting nuclear capability, but who truly has the power or leverage to influence Iran? China could help. India and Japan not so much. I still argue that Russia is our best bet. What is worse, Iran with a nuclear arsenal, or a diplomatic relationship with Russia?
May 17, 2007 at 5:27 am
Of course, we’re assuming Israel won’t act in its own self interest, making our discussion moot.
May 17, 2007 at 8:35 am
We are already working toward the demise of Iran.
George Bush’s Axis of evil speech was not a faux pas. There was a purpose to his madness.
Reaganesque. Bankrupting both N. Korea and Iran. While Invading Iraq to make Iran think she was next on the list. This would force her to frantically arm and defend herself while the world turned up the screws with sanctions.
Why do you think their are sanctions in place against Iran now and that gasoline only dropped to below $2.00 a gallon during the election?
To bankrupt Iran. Actually high gasoline prices is devastating to Iran. Too bad I migrated my old blog and lost old posts where I analyzed this issue.
But suffice it to say that high gasoline prices are devastating to Iran. and well North Korea is almost bankrupt now.
May 17, 2007 at 8:59 am
Perhaps I am being too short sighted in my thinking, but it seems that our foes in the Axis of Evil have only become stronger since the speech.
N. Korea has advanced in its nuclear program to where it is on cusp of striking capabilities. While the agreement made by Dept. of State adj. Christopher Hill was promising, who knows if the Koreans will be true to their word. A wretched economy has not seemed to stop Mr. Kim in the past.
Iran has only increased its power in the region and has the support of Russia and China – who wield veto power over any action that might need to be taken by a world body. Perhaps the sanctions will begin to take their toll, but it seems that all it has done is give Iran a new burst of political strength that has made it feel the need to medle in other regional affairs such as Iraq and Palestine.
I hope you are right, and all we are doing is biding time until the walls come tumbling down as they did during the cold war. It seems, for the time being, that we are being outsmarted and unless we get tactical, we may have a real mess on our hands.
May 17, 2007 at 9:28 am
Yes but you have to remember Kent that it takes a long, long time to make nukes from scratch. North Korea had been working on these even as they patted Bill Clinton on the back and said your a nice friend.
The USSR had 35,000 Nukes, a humongous Military and a Navy larger then the USA and the EU’s combined. This cost them. Now it is true that Russia and China are supporting IRan but it takes more then support to feed the people in the streets of Tehran. If that were the case then North Korea would be a world power.
Sanctions have been passed and the only way to bypass them now is thru smuggling and backdoor efforts. When your talking about smuggling a 1000 lbs of cocaine thats one thing. Smuggling billions of dollars worth of a product to feed a country is something totally different.
Why do you think Iran has become so vocal and so loudly proclaiming her rights. Why do you think she is struggling so hard in Iraq to banish the Americans. It is her dieing gasp. It will take a few years, but she is dieing and the forces of change inside her country is very strong.
Simply making it unbearable for the citizens of this country is the change needed. Their is no need to attack her. She will attack herself before too long.
May 17, 2007 at 4:57 pm
I understand. You are hoping for the sanctions to kick in so as to starve the people into line. I agree that that should be part of the plan – but I don’t think it can be the whole plan, and while it might work swimingly with N. Korea, Iran is much too wealthy for the time being. That, and I think Iran is being so vocal right now because she can be. The evil empire has called her out, and she has responded by standing toe to toe with the giant. While we have not blinked, we are weakened by our campaign in Iraq physically and mentally, and her leaders know that we would be crazy to attack her. Iran is a beacon for all those (Shia or not) in the Middle East who have dreamed of standing up to the United States. She struggles in Iraq because it is in her economic and security interests. She has the chance to dominate the region and, like Russia, she will not pass it up.
Maybe I am mislead about her relative strength, but if it takes a while to build a nuclear stockade, it also takes a while to starve a country that is producing an enormous amount of petrol. I fear by the time we starve her, she will already have the wmd capability, and her perilous situation at that time (if it gets to that) might encourage her to use it.